Sunday, March 7, 2010

“Developing An Investment Philosophy: Chapter 4 (Guru Focus)” plus 3 more

“Developing An Investment Philosophy: Chapter 4 (Guru Focus)” plus 3 more

Developing An Investment Philosophy: Chapter 4 (Guru Focus)

Posted: 06 Mar 2010 05:27 PM PST

Warren Buffett has called himself "85% Graham and 15% Fisher". While the works of Graham are often cited, Fisher's book "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" is not. Here follows a summary of the expanded version of this book, which includes 2 other works by Fisher including "Conservative Investors Sleep Well" and "Developing an Investment Philosophy".

This final chapter focuses on whether the market is efficient. Fisher is clearly in the "no" camp, though he notes that this philosophy has been gaining steam. He agrees that it is very difficult to make short-term profits and gain quickly from new, public information. However, for long-term investors he argues that the market is not even close to perfect.

To illustrate his point, Fisher points to the distribution of returns of various stock indexes. While the indexes themselves may move small amounts from day-to-day as the outlook for business conditions changes, individual stocks have far larger distributions of returns. Over five-year periods, the returns on an index may seem reasonable, but around 10% of stocks will show gains of thousands of percent. Fisher believes prudent investors can uncover at least some of these special stocks, leading to outsized profits in the long run.

As an example, Fisher takes the reader through a few years comparing the operations to the stock price of a company called Raychem Corporation. This was a company that only undertook projects if it could be the industry leader and if it possessed some knowledge or advantage that would make it difficult for competitors to copy. The company traded at 25 times forward earnings in 1975, as new products were expected to grow earnings in the years to come.

After a single major new product failure (resulting in a write-off that hurt earnings), followed by an unrelated restructuring meant to improve profitability, the stock dropped to one third of previous value over the course of a single year. Raychem management was upfront about both the positives and negatives facing the business, and yet the stock price stayed low, much to Fisher's bewilderment. Eventually, the price recovered. Fisher believes this to be a perfect example, though only one of many, of how the market is clearly inefficient.

Saj Karsan

[www.barelkarsan.com]

Saj Karsan founded an investment and research firm that is based on the principles of value investing. He has an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business, and an undergraduate engineering degree from McGill University.


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ENT: Humanism - It's not a religion, but a moral philosophy (The Sudbury Star)

Posted: 06 Mar 2010 06:51 PM PST

Posted By LARA BRADLEY

Updated 19 hours ago

They want to be good, but not out of fear of hell or the promise of heaven.

"Why do I want to be good? It feels good," said Humanist Eddo Nardi. "So I'm at peace with myself. When I'm at peace with myself, I'm at peace with the world. Especially my spouse and my loved ones."

There is no higher power or deity or element of worship involved in being a practising Humanist. They don't believe in angels, holy ghosts, zombies or even fate -- nothing supernatural. It's not a religion (although it's often brought up in the context of religion) but rather a moral philosophy that attaches importance to human dignity, concerns and capabilities, particularly rationality.

Joan Pella, Sheila McKillop, and Nardi all made different journeys before arriving at Humanism. The three are settled in Pella's living room, facing Lake Nepahwin, with two dogs, one of them Pomeranian belonging to Nardi, and a cat joining the group. They all appear to be highly empathic people; kindness just rolls off of them.

"I have a fulfilled life without a God up there or a devil down here," explained Nardi.

"And a self-determined life," said McKillop.

"Also you can make your own fate by developing yourself," added Pella.

"Using reason, ethics and philosophy," McKillop said.

But they're not Vulcans either -- the completely logical, but emotionless aliens with pointy ears made popular by Spock onStar Trek.

"We realize that Humanists are creatures of emotions and can be irrational, but we try to use the scientific method and if we can ... and compassion," Pella said. "That's our motto: reason with compassion."

While being a Humanist isn't about bashing religion, many members do at times, vent about religions they practised as children or young adults, and what led to them rejecting them. For many, these early experiences stamped into them feelings of guilt, fear and shame. Feelings they want to let go of.

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Nardi remembers being in a Catholic church, looking at the priest and thinking "something is very wrong here." Later, the priest was brought up on charges for molesting children. The restrictive nature of religion classes also bothered Nardi, as a youth. You weren't allowed to come up with your own answers to questions, he said.

"The question was there. So was the answer. I wasn't taught to think," Nardi said.

Humanism, with its many philosophers and internal debates, appealed to his intellectual curiosity and questing nature.

It did for the others, as well. As we talk, books are mentioned and favourite thinkers from David Suzuki to David Hume, lined up.

For Pella, who loves to sing and currently sings in the choir, it was waking up to the battle filled imagery in the United Church hymns that made her question. Bible classes were likened to "sword drills." That didn't feel right, either.

She remembers a priest visiting her house before her children started school. The Pellas had decided to send them to public school. He told her they would end up going to hell.

They figure their kids are "just as good or bad," as any other.

As for McKillop, she tried various religions before finding a fit with Humanism.

In a society split between religious denominations, sometimes it can feel lonely being a non-believer.

"You're made to feel like an outcast," said Pella.

"Many people think Christianity has a monopoly on morality, humanity and good works," said McKillop. "But the principles of humanism in of itself are equivalent or even surpasses that morality towards people. Treating people with respect and embracing their individuality and diversity."

Atheist doesn't necessarily mean amoral, she said. And you can be an atheist, but not a humanist, added Pella. Atheist simply means you don't believe in a higher power, while Humanism moves from the point encompassing a larger philosophy.

"To be a formal Humanist, we sort of agree on a set of ethics and principles," said Pella. "It pretty well bloomed in early Greece. People who didn't believe in the Greek Gods, but believed in the equality of human beings. Then it sort of got lost during the rise of the Roman empire. During the Enlightenment, starting with the French idea of democracy and Scottish philosophers, (it resurfaced)."

The thousands who belong to the Humanist Association of Canada are probably not truly reflective of the true scope of those who espouse its philosophy. Humanists tend not to be joiners, Pella said.

"It's like herding cats," she said.

Sometimes the Sudbury group, which started about five years ago, will meet at a formal place like the library or just gather socially at a pub. Attendance can vary from a handful to dozens. Their talks are often open to the public.

"Sometimes at the social meetings we get to talk to people who feel alone," said Pella. "Sort of shunned ... They feel that no one thinks like them and that they're outcast. So it's a good venue to reassure people who may not want to join, that they aren't bad people and that they have morality."

What issues do Humanists talk about and lobby for? Well, the right to choose for women is central to many. Its proponent, Henry Morgentaller, was the Humanists' first president in Canada. It's not surprising Humanists would like to see public money only fund public education, rather than go towards the separate school system. Many are for gay rights and also are strong environmentalists.

This past week, many of the Sudbury association took part in a silent vigil, called a "circle of concern," held at Tom Davies Square, urging both parties to resolve the strike.

They also conduct secular marriages, a right the government gave those trained in the ceremony in 1996, and even secular funerals.

So what happens when a Humanist dies, if there is no heaven or hell?

A person's energy goes back to the Earth, said McKillop.

"We become part of the stars," said Nardi.

It's often scary for people to articulate at first their beliefs or lack of belief when it comes to God. To say aloud, "I don't believe in God," even if that what's in your heart.

Then again, they joke, so far none have been struck down by a bolt of lighting.

lbradley@thesudburystar.com

- - -

Want to hang outwith Humanists?

* Next meeting:March 18, 7 p.m.;

* Where:Main branch of the Greater Sudbury Public Library, 75 Mackenzie St;

* For more info:Call Joan at 523-2410 or Eddo Nardi at 566-0532.

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Rams sink 3-ball, pocket 2nd title (Worcester Telegram & Gazette)

Posted: 07 Mar 2010 02:25 AM PST

WORCESTER —  Shepherd Hill Regional has a simple philosophy regarding 3-pointers: Shoot until you miss.

The second-seeded Rams didn't miss much early on, relying on some key long-range buckets by senior Mary Barbale and sophomore Meghan Fornaro to build a big lead and then hold on for a 55-44 victory over top-seeded Wachusett Regional last night to repeat as Central Mass. Division 1 champions at WPI's Harrington Auditorium.

Shepherd Hill (22-1) will face Western Mass. champ East Longmeadow (18-4) at 7:45 p.m. Wednesday in a state semifinal at MassMutual Center in Springfield.

"We are so pumped," said Barbale, who finished with 21 points after shooting 5 of 10 on 3s. "Tonight and tomorrow, we can be pumped, Monday, it's back to work."

The Rams were hot from beyond the arc in the first half, making 6 of 16 3-pointers, with Fornaro canning 3 of 7 and Barbale sinking 2 of 4 to help build a 31-24 halftime lead.

"I don't know, I was just shooting," Barbale said. "I had the green light, so I was just going."

After Barbale sank three of Shepherd Hill's first four 3-point attempts to start the second half, helping to extend the lead to 16, the Rams went cold and missed their next seven, prompting coach Jim Hackenson to go back to basics.

"My kids are given the green light and wherever they are, they can shoot and I will tell them when to stop," Hackenson said. "They throw up too many, and some of them they were throwing up and air-balling them."

Wachusett took advantage of that cold streak as Jacqui Brugliera came alive to key a 12-1 Mountaineers run that closed out the quarter. Brugliera grabbed six of her 10 rebounds during that run and scored 11 of her team's 13 points in the quarter to cut the deficit to 42-37.

"She is strong and she took girls to the hoop," Hackenson said of Brugliera, who wrapped up a fine career with a game-high 28 points and 16 rebounds. "She follows her shots so well, and I had to double-team her — and I never have to do that."

Brugliera kept Wachusett (22-2) in the game with a big 3-pointer, and then with hard work in the paint. The senior grabbed a pair of offensive boards and had a put-back where she drew the foul to cut the Rams' lead to 47-44 with just over four minutes remaining.

However, the Shepherd Hill defense clamped down with Boutilette making two steals that the Rams converted into points from Ali Tyburski and Fornaro to extend their lead to nine with 1:57 left. Wachusett couldn't find more points as Fornaro (12 points) and Tyburski hit foul shots with under a minute to play to seal a second straight crown.

"We clawed back, we just couldn't get that one extra hoop to make it a one-possession game and not a two-possession game," Wachusett coach Jim Oxford said. "This team has a lot of heart and they fought and played a very good, seasoned basketball team neck-and-neck. The score says 11, but I think it was a lot closer than that on the floor. I'm proud of this team."

Barbale said keeping Brugliera from taking over was a big goal for the Rams.

"We felt like we could contain her really well," Barbale said, noting the job Jackie Penniman (9 rebounds) and Tyburski did making her work for her points down low. "She's usually their big scorer and we knew we had to contain her, and half of that was putting pressure on their guards, trying not to let them get the ball to her."

Oxford felt the Mountaineers had a sizable advantage with the 6-foot Brugliera and the 6-3 Holt, but credited the Rams for playing right with them.

"I was surprised we gave up as many offensive rebounds and second shots as we did," Oxford said. "They got second and third shots, and you can't give a team like that second and third shots."

Shepherd Hill 55, Wachusett 44
SHEPHERD HILL (22-1)

Shana McGonigle 1, Alyssa Bryn 0, Emily Bagley 0, Meghan Fornaro 12, Carolyn Hassett 0, Jackie Penniman 4, Megan Boutilette 9, Ali Tyburski 6, Ana Boutilette 0, Mary Barbale 21, Taylor Daniels 2, Marissa Mancini 0, Tina Gauvin 0, Emily Stiles 0, Katie Racicot 0.

WACHUSETT (22-2)

Jacqui Brugliera 28, Allison Leather 0, Cheyenne Jennings 2, Emily Eska 0, Nina Hazelton 1, Alyssa Lanper 0, Jackie Boffoli 6, Erin McGowan 0, Bri Schnare 0, Kelsey Lyford 0, Katie Murray 2, Katie Hitch 0, Shannen El-Qasem 2, Shannon Holt 3, Jess Kender 0.

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Rams drill 3s en route to repeat (Worcester Telegram & Gazette)

Posted: 07 Mar 2010 02:24 AM PST

WORCESTER —  Shepherd Hill has a simple philosophy regarding 3-pointers: Shoot until you miss.

The second-seeded Rams didn't miss much early on, relying on some big long-range buckets from senior Mary Barbale and sophomore Meghan Fornaro to build a big lead and hold on for a 55-44 win over top-seeded Wachusett to repeat as Division 1 champions last night at WPI's Harrington Auditorium.

Shepherd Hill (22-1) will face Western Mass. champ East Longmeadow (18-4) at 7:45 p.m. Wednesday in a state semifinal at MassMutual Center in Springfield.

"We are so pumped," said Barbale, who finished with 21 points after shooting 5 of 10 on 3s. "Tonight and tomorrow we can be pumped, Monday it's back to work."

The Rams were hot from beyond the arc in the first half, making six of 16 3-pointers, with Fornaro making 3 of 7 and Barbale making 2 of 4 to help build a 31-24 halftime lead.

"I don't know, I was just shooting," Barbale said. "I had the green light, so I was just going."

After Barbale sank three of Shepherd Hill's first four 3-point attempts to start the second half and held extend the Rams' lead to 16, Shepherd Hill went cold and missed its next seven — prompting coach Jim Hackenson to go back to basics.

"My kids are given the green light, and wherever they are, they can shoot, and I will tell them when to stop," Hackenson said. "They throw up too many, and some of them they were throwing up and airballing them."

Wachusett took advantage of that cold streak as Jacqui Brugliera came alive to key a 12-1 run for the Mountaineers to close out the quarter. Brugliera recorded six of her 10 rebounds during that run and scored 11 of Wachusett's 13 points in the quarter to cut the lead to 42-37.

"She is strong, and she took girls to the hoop," Hackenson said of Brugliera, who wrapped up a fine career with a game-high 28 points and 16 rebounds. "She follows her shots so well, and I had to double-team her — and I never have to do that."

Brugliera kept Wachusett (22-2) in the game with a big 3-pointer, then with hard work in the paint. The senior grabbed a pair of offensive boards and a putback where she drew the foul to cut the lead to 47-44 with just over four minutes remaining.

However, the Rams' defense clamped down with Boutilette making two steals that Shepherd Hill converted into points from Ali Tyburski and Fornaro to extend the lead to nine with 1:57 left. Wachusett couldn't find more points as Fornaro (12 points) and Tyburski hit foul shots with under a minute to play to seal a second straight crown.

"We clawed back, we just couldn't get that one extra hoop to make it a one-possession game and not a two-possession game," Wachusett coach Jim Oxford said. "This team has a lot of heart, and they fought and played a very good, seasoned basketball team neck and neck. The score says 11, but I think it was a lot closer than that on the floor. I'm proud of this team."

Barbale said keeping Brugliera from taking over was a big goal for the Rams.

"We felt like we could contain her really well," Barbale said, pointing to the job Jackie Penniman (9 rebounds) and Tyburski did making her work for her points down low. "She's usually their big scorer, and we knew we had to contain her, and half of that was putting pressure on their guards — trying not to let them get the ball to her."

Oxford felt the Mountaineers had a sizable advantage with the 6-foot Brugliera and the 6-3 Holt, but credited the Rams for playing right with them.

"I was surprised we gave up as many offensive rebounds and second shots as we did," Oxford said. "They got second and third shots, and you can't give a team like that second and third shots."

Shepherd Hill 55, Wachusett 44
SHEPHERD HILL (22-1)

Shana McGonigle 1, Alyssa Bryn 0, Emily Bagley 0, Meghan Fornaro 12, Carolyn Hassett 0, Jackie Penniman 4, Megan Boutilette 9, Ali Tyburski 6, Ana Boutilette 0, Mary Barbale 21, Taylor Daniels 2, Marissa Mancini 0, Tina Gauvin 0, Emily Stiles 0, Katie Racicot 0.

WACHUSETT (22-2)

Jacqui Brugliera 28, Allison Leather 0, Cheyenne Jennings 2, Emily Eska 0, Nina Hazelton 1, Alyssa Lanper 0, Jackie Boffoli 6, Erin McGowan 0, Bri Schnare 0, Kelsey Lyford 0, Katie Murray 2, Katie Hitch 0, Shannen El-Qasem 2, Shannon Holt 3, Jess Kender 0.

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